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guard rejection and acceptance fractions","columns":[{"key":"arm_id","label":"Policy","unit":null},{"key":"helpful_rejection_fraction","label":"Fraction of helpful proposals rejected","unit":"fraction"},{"key":"useful_rejection_fraction","label":"Fraction of useful proposals rejected","unit":"fraction"},{"key":"harmful_acceptance_fraction","label":"Fraction of harmful proposals accepted","unit":"fraction"}],"rows":[{"arm_id":"raw__common__p600_guarded","helpful_rejection_fraction":0.0866590649942987,"useful_rejection_fraction":0.0919540229885057,"harmful_acceptance_fraction":0.3904761904761905},{"arm_id":"v2_rule__common__p600_guarded","helpful_rejection_fraction":0.2633371169125993,"useful_rejection_fraction":0.2758620689655172,"harmful_acceptance_fraction":0.3177570093457944},{"arm_id":"S79_RMSE_all__common__p600_guarded","helpful_rejection_fraction":0.6089613034623218,"useful_rejection_fraction":0.6105919003115264,"harmful_acceptance_fraction":0.25}],"sourceFile":"outputs/round8/reporting/all56_station_summary.csv.gz","notes":[]}],"notes":["0 of24 qualified;2,135 failed check instances are reported, not2,135 independent harmed routes.","For S79 common/600 the guard rejects598/982 helpful proposals and588/963 useful proposals, and accepts8/32 harmful proposals (published R8 report).","Helpful means improved duration without added late count/severity; useful adds>60s saved. Harmful means extra late packages or>60s duration/severity loss, versus historical raw with1e-7 tolerance.","Guard retains11.83% of the direct policy mean duration benefit versus historical raw (published R8 report); this is a descriptive point ratio, not a calibrated probability.","Fallback is not a human review or a withheld decision. Actual human actions/deferrals are zero; time and cost are unmeasured/null."]},{"id":"round2-published-heldout","title":"Older round-two held-out results — not a latest-model test","description":"Published rounded aggregates only, copied from ROUND2_FINDINGS. No round-two final artifacts or holdouts were reopened by this exporter.","modelVersion":"catboost-round2-residual_d4-1","independentRouteCount":32,"latestModel":false,"tables":[{"id":"round2-stronger-planner","label":"Older model: stronger-planner held-out means","columns":[{"key":"method","label":"Older round-two method","unit":null},{"key":"totalDurationMinutes","label":"Mean total duration","unit":"minutes"},{"key":"drivingMinutes","label":"Mean driving","unit":"minutes"},{"key":"waitingSeconds","label":"Mean waiting","unit":"seconds"},{"key":"latePackages","label":"Mean late packages","unit":"packages"},{"key":"durationDeltaVsRawMinutes","label":"Duration change versus round-two raw","unit":"minutes"},{"key":"ciLowerMinutes","label":"Published 95% interval lower","unit":"minutes"},{"key":"ciUpperMinutes","label":"Published 95% interval upper","unit":"minutes"},{"key":"nominalDeltaMinutes","label":"Nominal duration change versus raw","unit":"minutes"},{"key":"summedLatenessSeconds","label":"Mean summed package lateness","unit":"package-seconds"}],"rows":[{"method":"raw","totalDurationMinutes":497.59,"drivingMinutes":231.32,"waitingSeconds":1.61,"latePackages":0.797,"durationDeltaVsRawMinutes":0,"ciLowerMinutes":null,"ciUpperMinutes":null,"nominalDeltaMinutes":0,"summedLatenessSeconds":2308},{"method":"rule","totalDurationMinutes":488.61,"drivingMinutes":222.33,"waitingSeconds":1.79,"latePackages":0.595,"durationDeltaVsRawMinutes":-8.99,"ciLowerMinutes":-9.76,"ciUpperMinutes":-8.15,"nominalDeltaMinutes":2.37,"summedLatenessSeconds":1386},{"method":"catboost","totalDurationMinutes":481.96,"drivingMinutes":215.65,"waitingSeconds":4.18,"latePackages":0.474,"durationDeltaVsRawMinutes":-15.63,"ciLowerMinutes":-16.99,"ciUpperMinutes":-14.29,"nominalDeltaMinutes":4.09,"summedLatenessSeconds":1106},{"method":"selective","totalDurationMinutes":495.36,"drivingMinutes":229.09,"waitingSeconds":1.57,"latePackages":0.73,"durationDeltaVsRawMinutes":-2.23,"ciLowerMinutes":-2.48,"ciUpperMinutes":-1.97,"nominalDeltaMinutes":0,"summedLatenessSeconds":2009}],"sourceFile":"docs/ROUND2_FINDINGS.md","notes":[]},{"id":"round2-unfamiliar","label":"Older model: unfamiliar compound gains and failures","columns":[{"key":"cell","label":"cell","unit":null},{"key":"method","label":"method","unit":null},{"key":"metric","label":"metric","unit":null},{"key":"unit","label":"unit","unit":null},{"key":"value","label":"value","unit":null},{"key":"ciLower","label":"ciLower","unit":null},{"key":"ciUpper","label":"ciUpper","unit":null},{"key":"harmedRouteAverages","label":"harmedRouteAverages","unit":null},{"key":"independentRoutes","label":"independentRoutes","unit":null}],"rows":[{"cell":"unfamiliar compound / fresh correct reports","method":"catboost","metric":"duration change versus raw","unit":"minutes","value":30.51,"ciLower":22.57,"ciUpper":39.32,"harmedRouteAverages":32,"independentRoutes":32},{"cell":"unfamiliar compound / fresh correct reports","method":"catboost","metric":"late-package change versus raw","unit":"packages","value":0.385,"ciLower":0.083,"ciUpper":0.797,"harmedRouteAverages":null,"independentRoutes":32},{"cell":"unfamiliar compound / combined reports","method":"catboost","metric":"duration improvement versus raw (positive means shorter)","unit":"minutes","value":46.96,"ciLower":null,"ciUpper":null,"harmedRouteAverages":null,"independentRoutes":32},{"cell":"unfamiliar compound / stale-only","method":"catboost","metric":"duration change versus raw","unit":"minutes","value":28.28,"ciLower":null,"ciUpper":null,"harmedRouteAverages":null,"independentRoutes":32}],"sourceFile":"docs/ROUND2_FINDINGS.md","notes":[]}],"notes":["16 DLA7 final routes dated August16–17 and16 external DLA9 routes dated August18–26,2018. Final32 were once reserved before the older model test; they are now previously inspected.","Older model220 trees/depth4 and preserve-fresh policy,32-evaluation deadline search; it is not S79. No claim that round-eight S79 was tested unseen.","All49,152 old final plans were valid across both planners; this is a plan count, not independent routes.","Per-world reference hashes and full stop orders were not captured in that older final run; no old replay orders are invented here.","Published intervals use1,000 whole-route resamples and are descriptive/unadjusted. Original printed rounding is preserved; null intervals were not published in the cited passage.","Selective was6.76minutes slower and added0.135late packages versus rule; unconditional CatBoost caused30.51minutes nominal harm in unfamiliar conditions.","These old results cannot be interpreted as a controlled old/new-model improvement comparison."]}],"operationalSummary":{"replayFits":0,"replayModelLoads":0,"replayPredictions":0,"replayPlannerCalls":0,"replaySimulatorCalls":0,"replayEvaluatorCalls":0,"replayBootstrapSamples":0,"originalRound8Fits":0,"originalRound8PlannerCalls":25152,"actualHumanReviews":0,"actualDeferrals":0,"humanTimeSeconds":null,"monetaryCost":null},"attribution":{"dataset":"2021 Amazon Last Mile Routing Research Challenge","publisher":"Amazon","attribution":"Amazon Last Mile Routing Research Challenge dataset (2021), Amazon. Distributed under CC BY-NC 4.0. Dataset description: 2021 Amazon Last Mile Routing Research Challenge: Data Set, Transportation Science, doi:10.1287/trsc.2022.1173.","license":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)","licenseUrl":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/","registryUrl":"https://registry.opendata.aws/amazon-last-mile-challenges/","sourceRetrievalDate":null,"sourceVerificationDate":"2026-10-17","retrievalNote":"Exact original retrieval timestamp is not recorded in data/SOURCES.json; its checksum note records local verification on2026-10-17. No source redownload occurred for this export."},"limitations":["Amazon matrices are historical average travel estimates. Traffic, report faults, ages and support feeds are explicitly simulated.","Each time snapshot restarts the whole route at clock zero; it is not an in-progress dispatch.","Package deadlines are sparse. No operational Amazon savings, optimal routes, calibrated safety, or competitor advantage is established.","The four replay examples are retrospectively curated illustrations; aggregate rows above describe the saved registered cohort instead.","AI assisted coding, experiment implementation, review and export. Human operational review time/cost were not measured."],"sourceFiles":[{"path":"outputs/round8/reporting/all56_station_summary.csv.gz","sha256":"2c5dabccc84c2354469a72d247084b831ca70ba089cb5b17ebfa0eccb568d121","receiptVerified":true,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"outputs/round8/calibration_analysis/paired_effects.csv.gz","sha256":"24c2f97a17621e6a40484aa078a4923f69c8c36a2527f9a796d041342299d965","receiptVerified":true,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"outputs/round8/reporting/matched_comparator_tails.csv.gz","sha256":"c7d39e5127eb4b53860dc58e4f985246dab37aa7083f21b1557f1c64ebf13381","receiptVerified":true,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"outputs/round8/reporting/retained_benefit.csv.gz","sha256":"a04b7bc61fc323120f1e867b4a5aad6e1a66079af95841901dbe478933e08703","receiptVerified":true,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"outputs/round8/reporting/qualification_summary.csv.gz","sha256":"4e7dc7c9dca97eac92c412f0a655af53447994a641eaed2c263757f360d0c942","receiptVerified":true,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"outputs/round8/reporting/complete.json","sha256":"647167f8e3242bd725b87f24850bef9a697c763c611773b00f9f600b3a6ea337","receiptVerified":true,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"docs/ROUND2_FINDINGS.md","sha256":"91a3e9a35be6d1710901d717d1e12bcd7f0d5ea1005ce67d79957bfbf74a4869","receiptVerified":false,"publishedSourceVerified":true},{"path":"docs/ROUND8_FINDINGS.md","sha256":"db5185a3d3fafce1f3d87b668fee243f1a055507a0d84c9b9c555184f878396a","receiptVerified":false,"publishedSourceVerified":true},{"path":"data/SOURCES.json","sha256":"64cdde9416bc70215ad628f907a514c18ddd7b3418d9eca9755a15dd21afeaf0","receiptVerified":false,"publishedSourceVerified":true},{"path":"outputs/round8/delivery/artifact_manifest.json","sha256":"301d91d3ffcb94032c3c5dd214f2cd59b31eae727ec28835a78db15d9c2b699b","receiptVerified":false,"publishedSourceVerified":false},{"path":"outputs/round8/delivery/publication_receipt.json","sha256":"9208fc98eca13cc2b02329d8dde86a591acd6736d0fbc17e726640620254359d","receiptVerified":false,"publishedSourceVerified":false}]}